Stormy weather ahead: the looming climate threat for broadband infrastructure and the virtual economy
Rising sea levels and increased flood risk pose a threat to internet infrastructure and the economy that depends on it
Storm Ciara ravaged Great Britain with high winds and intense rain in February 2020, culminating in widespread flooding. An underappreciated impact of this flooding was severe damage to internet infrastructure, which caused connection outages across the nation. In our increasingly online world, the loss of internet access also means losing reliable news sources and methods of communication, critical resources in an emergency. The risk extends to internet service providers, as damaged infrastructure leads to great economic loss. The damage caused by Ciara is not an isolated event, as the warming of Earth’s oceans and atmosphere leads to increased atmospheric water vapor, increasing the amount available for future storms like Ciara to wring out in heavy downpours. Britain would see proof of this not even a week later when the equally powerful Storm Dennis hit the nation, exacerbating the floods caused by Ciara. In this blog post, we analyze the risks posed to internet infrastructure by climate change, identify stakeholders likely to be most impacted by this issue, and offer adaptation methods designed to secure a climate-resilient future of connectivity.
Fiber optic internet is expanding rapidly and at risk due to climate perils.
Fiber optic internet has seen massive recent expansion. MarketsandMarkets projects growth rates near 10% by 2021. However, much of this technology is at risk of seawater inundation. In addition to heightened levels of extreme weather flood risk, researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison find that 4,067 miles of cable and 1,101 nodes are predicted to be submerged or surrounded by encroaching oceans within 15 years. With fiber optic lifetime estimated at 25 years, this means that cables installed today will be exposed to rising seawater. Further illustrating the urgency of this issue, networks most at risk are also those that serve densely populated economic centers such as New York, Miami, and Seattle. Timely adaptation of internet infrastructure is essential to protect the crucial communication that drives the global economy.
To adapt, we must first fully understand the threat. While most existing fiber optic cable is graded to be water resistant, it is not designed for extended periods of water exposure. As cables begin to be submerged for full tide cycles, system integrity and functionality is threatened. Water molecules may become embedded within fiber micro-cracks, leading to increases in signal attenuation. Cable connectors may also become corroded, leading to signal loss. Armor and cladding on contemporary infrastructure is likely vulnerable to these threats, as most fiber optic cables were installed over the past twenty years without significant water resistance in mind.
With the right infrastructure adaptation, damage prevention is possible.
Internet service providers (ISPs) need to methodologically update at-risk technological components to create a climate-hardened fiber optic infrastructure. This adaptation is analogous to the storm-hardening that electrical and water utilities have undertaken in response to severe weather. The threat of moisture ingress at cable defect sites can be mitigated through implementation of innovative waterproofing technology, such as cables with swelling fibers from Superior Essex, and polymers from Hitachi Cable designed to absorb water that may threaten signal strength. Coating methods, including deuterium treatment from Tyco Telecom, can fill cable imperfections otherwise vulnerable to water. Standard cable connectors must also be replaced with alternate models less prone to corrosion. Connectors with multiple protective shells have proven waterproof capability, such as those from Guangzhou Network Company, or advanced seal systems from Senko. Each ISP must identify which adaptation technologies are best suited to the unique needs of their cable networks.
ISPs, local governments, and equipment manufacturers each have a stake in fiber optic risk.
While fiber optic connections support communication across industries in both public and private sectors, the threat of cable inundation is particularly salient to three players: ISPs, government agencies, and fiber optic equipment providers.
ISPs face critical losses if cables lose functionality due to rising sea levels. Large customer segments would experience greater levels of signal attenuation as fibers begin to interact with moisture, eventually losing service entirely as cables become inoperable. In addition to losing at-risk customers’ revenue, ISPs would simultaneously create an opening for satellite-based services such as StarLink to expand within the market.
For government agencies, such as the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), concern resides in public access to high-speed internet. Public access will suffer as large networks of fiber optic cable become unreliable.
Finally, manufacturers and developers of fiber optic cable and technology can utilize the need for infrastructure adaptation as an opportunity for business growth. Recent fiber optic waterproofing innovations could be deployed at great scale with proper marketing and ISP partnerships.
Government legislation can make or break adaptation projects.
Fiber optic networks within the United States are privately owned and operated. However, much of this infrastructure runs through public land and state-owned ducts and conduits. In addition to occupancy fees associated with gaining the right to use these public assets, many states require ISPs to pay permit costs when expanding and updating their infrastructure. New York, a high-risk state for fiber optic inundation, requires ISPs to pay recurring fees on new and existing public conduit occupancy. While this leads to inflated prices for the consumer, it also is a dissuasive factor when ISPs seek to update their infrastructure, as a new project would incur further cost. To incentivize the adaptation methods needed to ensure a future with reliable fiber optic communication, state and local governments may need to consider reduced occupancy costs or eliminate permit fees, as has the Mayor of Cheyenne, Wyoming. Government may not directly influence choices regarding network adaptation, but it plays an important role in dictating cost-effectiveness of adaptation projects, and determining how responsively ISPs safeguard critical communication.
Two Degrees’ recommendations
Each of the three key players in fiber optic adaptation will need to take a distinct approach to advantageously surmount the threat to internet infrastructure posed by rising sea levels and increased flood risk.
ISPs such as CenturyLink and AT&T should develop multiple scenarios to identify the extent of their infrastructure threatened by climate change-driven flooding, arriving at a cost estimation for potential lost functionality. Once their risk is understood, ISPs should seek advice from Two Degrees Adapt regarding optimal technological solutions and finding technology partners.
Government organizations should encourage local and state legislatures to ease the costs and restrictions imposed upon ISPs, lowering the cost of adaptation projects and expediting future-proofed internet access for at-risk populations.
Technology manufacturers and developers such as Sumitomo Electrical and Corning should take advantage of the need for infrastructure adaptation and invest internally as well as externally in developing solutions to enhance salt water resistance of cables and connectors. These firms should also seek advice and help from Two Degrees Adapt to form strategic partnerships with thought leader ISPs, and source promising technology from universities and start-ups.
References
[1] Durairajan, Ramakrishnan, et al. “Lights Out.” Proceedings of the Applied Networking Research Workshop, 2018, doi:10.1145/3232755.3232775.
[2] ReportsnReports. “Fiber Optics Market Growing at a CAGR of 9.8% During 2016 to 2021 - ReportsnReports.” PR Newswire: News Distribution, Targeting and Monitoring, 26 June 2018.
[3] Berin Szóka, Jon Henke. “Don't Blame Big Cable. It’s Local Governments That Choke Broadband Competition.” Wired, Conde Nast, 28 June 2018.
[4] NYSDOT, “NYSDOT use and occupancy permit fee schedule for fiber optic installations.” 2019.
[5] Chilton, James. “Mayor Proposes Fiber Optic Fee Moratorium in Cheyenne, Wyo.” Government Technology State & Local Articles - E.Republic.