Our views on "Adapt Now"
Adapt Now by the Global Commission on Adaptation is a significant first step, but further action will require deep techno-economic assessment by cities and corporations
On September 10th, the Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) published a report titled “Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience”. GCA is a high-profile organization with the report sporting signatories such as Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General; Bill Gates, Co-Chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Kristalina Georgieva, CEO of World Bank; and 31 other commissioners representing governments such as Canada, China, the Philippines, as well as World Resources Institute, Oxfam and Royal DSM. An influential group of organizations issuing a report on Climate Resilience and Adaptation is precisely the jump start this burgeoning field needs.
Rather than attempt an exhaustive economic estimate, the report highlights five specific areas as illustrative examples (Early Warning Systems, Dryland Agriculture, Urban Infrastructure, Water management, Mangrove Protection). Using the avoided loss method, the authors estimate a positive economic impact of $7 Trillion to $10 Trillion between 2020 to 2030 across these areas. Most of these examples represent benefit:cost ratios between 5:1 and 10:1. In addition to the economic impact assessment of selected sectors, the GCA report makes recommendations to accelerate adaptation in seven key systems: food, natural environment, water, cities, infrastructure, disaster risk management, and finance. For example, the financial system could advance adaption with better risk quantification, methods for risk transfer and pooling that can be used to create new financial instruments.
The GCA report economic assessments are largely in agreement with a report Two Degrees Adapt came out with in April 2019 “A Brave New World: Climate Adaptation as a Growth Vector for the 2020s”. Similar to the GCA report, we considered seven sectors as illustrative examples for climate adaptation (Urban Heat Island Reduction, Coastal Infrastructure, Inland Flood Adaptation, Hydropower Adaptation, Fire Modeling and Monitoring, Aquaculture, New Wheat Cultivars) and estimated an annual economic impact of $1.6 Trillion/year starting in 2030.
The report makes the much-needed point that adaptation can have significant economic benefits even in the short term. However, an extensive further technology assessment would be needed at an individual stakeholder level city and individual cities, governments, financial sector and corporations for actual projects to materialize. Hence, this report is a necessary but not sufficient step to catalyze climate resilience and adaptation actions. The report itself acknowledges this in Part III, The Immediate Imperative: A Year of Action. The Commission will pursue a set of Action Tracks over the course of the next 15 months in partnership with governments, private sector entities, civil society, academia, grassroots organizations, youth groups, and all others. Two Degrees Adapt aims to be among those partners, lending its technical expertise and business acumen to the effort.
For example, the report recommends Green Roofs for managing urban heat island and flooding. However, Green Roofs range in costs from $15/ft2 to $80/ft2 with vastly different benefits along that cost spectrum. Also, whether a green or a blue or a cool roof should be chosen by a city is a complex question and driven by the projected climate variables such as summer maximum temperatures and precipitation rate during storms, city budgets and the cost+ capabilities of the technology. Similarly, whether to use sea-walls or mangroves or flexible storm surge barriers for coastal infrastructure resilience is a complex decision that required deep techno-economic analysis and scenario development. In addition, many technology providers in the adaptation space are small companies and academia, requiring significant due diligence before spending precious budget funds.
Two Degrees Adapt uses a proprietary PEMTO (Peril Mapping and Technology Offset) tool to answer such questions and enable good decisions. We bring to bear significant expertise in downscaled climate models, in depth understanding of technologies and technology providers. In addition to the PEMTO tool, Two Degrees Adapt covers 500+ adaptation technology providers in its coverage with leading innovators such as Stormsensor, Tierra Resources, AquaFence, Enview, and Natel Energy.