How NGOs can work with Two Degrees Adapt
The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), one of the leading solution oriented NGOs in environmental sustainability presented us with an important question, how can the US agriculture sector be climate-proofed? Climate-proofing is the practice of integrating climate risk analysis into long term planning ensuring the negative impacts of climate change are offset. Two Degrees Adapt believes that climate change is a global phenomenon with local manifestations. Given the nature of climate change and diversity of crops in the US, this question is best answered through case studies that focus on specific crop-state combinations such as Iowa corn, Minnesota soybeans and Kansas winter wheat. These crops were selected to represent climate impacts on the commodity crops most important to food supply chains in the US and around the world. To inform near-term action, we recommend a focus on the timeframe between 2020 and 2050.
To answer this question we used 20 different climate models to explore a range of possible climate changes. In order to capture variations within a state, global climate model data was downscaled to 16 square kilometers (4000 acres) using a statistical method called Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA). We then coupled the localized climate data with crop yield models to predict the impacts of climate change on crop yields. Given the availability of good quality yield data and decision making authority at the county level, we averaged this localized, gridded yield impact data at county scales to make the information more relevant and actionable for policymakers, farmers, and other agricultural decision-makers.
Qualitative interviews with farmers and agricultural experts in Iowa, Minnesota, and Kansas provided additional insights about how climate change is likely to affect crop production, profitability, and about adaptation methods already underway in the three states. Interviews with extension schools and universities and literature review helped us develop insights into what adaptation technologies currently at laboratory scale can be field deployed in the next five years.
The outcome of the project includes:
An interactive StoryMap developed in collaboration with Stone Environmental that presents a view of the historical and future climate at the county level as well as the impact of the changing climate on crop production. The Story Map defines and demonstrates the change in key climate variables that impact crop yield, such as killing degree days and growing degree days. We worked with EDF and Stone Environmental to convert complex climate metrics into a clear story centered on the need for adaptation in the agriculture sector.
A detailed report written with the key stakeholders in mind (lawmakers, federal and state agencies, grower associations, agricultural lenders, and the food industry). The report provides an overview of the findings including key climate trends and adaptation opportunities. The report also provides an overview of the data and methodology.
An annotated, user friendly Excel file that includes the climate and crop metrics at the county level. Observational historical data as well as 2030 and 2050 climate projections based on the RCP4.5 forcing scenario are provided at the county level. The file includes a comparison of the output from all 20 models, multi-model statistics, and outlier analysis.
Two Degrees Adapt has supported clients through a range of mechanisms: by sharing our Innovation Tracker - a searchable database of over 500 adaptation technologies across the globe; through our Climate Data Lens offering - a database of climate datasets that represent historical and future climates; and through our fee for service, Project Support. In this blog we provide an overview of how we helped one client, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), by combining our offerings to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the climate risks to core US agricultural crops, adaptation strategies, and the impact each strategy can have on the agriculture industry.
For more information on how we can help you solve your pressing questions please contact us at info@twodegreesadapt.com.